Downsizing: UFC Planning Major Roster Cuts

One of the UFC's favorite talking points in demonstrating its dominance of the MMA industry is the number of fighters it has under exclusive contract. 250 is the standard talking point, although Forbes magazine reported it at 275. According to the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, the actual number is closer to 200, but not for long.

Dave Meltzer reported in the most recent edition of the newsletter that the company plans to cut its roster down significantly, perhaps to as low as 150 or less. The stated rationale is that the company is struggling to keep all of its fighters active, despite having recently increased cards from nine to eleven bouts.

The first casualty of the new policy appears to be Jake O'Brien who was cut after suffering his first career loss to Andrei Arlovski. Kalib Starnes is the latest announced cut, although he claims to have requested a release, but will not be the last. The recently announced move to cut the WEC Light Heavyweight and Middleweight divisions also fits nicely with the new policy.

According to Meltzer, the company's goal is three fights per year for contracted fighters. That number looks about right for the top fighters, but will likely be less well received by mid to lower level fighters who are accustomed to fighting 4-5 times per year at a minimum and depend on their fight purses to a much greater degree than more established names.

Money is another obvious factor in the move. The company is not doing as well financially as it was in 2006 with rumors of a round of layoffs at the corporate office and pressure to reduce costs. As the minimum contracted payouts slowly, but steadily, increase the incentive to sign and stockpile talent diminishes, particularly at the bottom of the card where it becomes cheaper to bring in new talent.

To some degree Tim Sylvia fits into this conversation as well, as an example that the days of simply paying what it takes to keep a guy are over. The company appears to be serious about containing its fighter costs and is willing to let some of its top fighters go.

Liddell Out of UFC 85

Yesterday the UFC announced that Chuck Liddell is out of his scheduled bout with Rashad Evans at UFC 85 due to a torn hamstring. It's not clear what direction the promotion will go in as a result of the injury. With a win over Evans, Liddell was expected to meet the winner of Jackson-Griffin for the Light Heavyweight title in what would have been expected to be the company's biggest event of the year.

That bout may now have to wait till the Super Bowl Saturday show in 2009, assuming Liddell successfully recovers and can get by his next opponent. That could mean that the champion, either Jackson or Griffin, would fight only once in 2008.

UFC 82 Review: All Hail the King

One fact was inescapable in the the hype leading up to UFC 82: in Dana White's mind, Anderson Silva is the best pound for pound fighter in the world. White's campaign for Silva has been relentless since UFC 77, and deservedly so given Silva's reign of terror in the UFC (6-0 by way of 4 KOs and 2 submissions, all without leaving the second round). The Countdown show for UFC 82 was filled with enough references to Silva's status as "the best pound for pound fighter in the world" to leave even the skeptic subliminally convinced.

Saturday night Silva proved White right, turning in another stunningly brilliant performance that cemented his place on the throne of MMA. Simply put, there is no one in the sport today with the air of invincibility that surrounds Silva. Georges St. Pierre is undoubtedly the superior athlete, but make no mistake about it, until GSP decimates a division the way the Silva has, there can be no debate: Anderson Silva is the undisputed King of MMA.

What Silva means to business remains to be seen, he has yet to prove himself as a pay-per-view draw, but has arguably been hampered by a lack of marque challengers in the middleweight division. For all his accolades, Rich Franklin, Silva's most prominent opponent, has never shown to be much of a pay-per-view draw himself. Given Dan Henderson's limited exposure in the United States, its hard to imagine this event being Silva's pay-per-view breakout, but its possible given the undisputed champion angle, plus Silva's dominance and Henderson's high profile loss to Quinton Jackson last September.

Where Silva goes from here is a question mark. The next obvious fight is Yushin Okami who holds the last victory over Silva, albeit by disqualification. Regardless of Silva's stature, that fight will mean very little for business. The biggest money matches on the table for Silva at 185 would come in the form of welterweights Matt Hughes and the aforementioned St. Pierre.

The most predictable direction would be Silva-Okami in the late summer leading to a big match for Silva in December against either Hughes or St. Pierre stepping up in weight. There has been some talk of Silva stepping up to Light Heavyweight, but that seems premature with that division already stacked, not to mention whether or not Silva truly has the body to compete at 205.

In the post event press conference, White said that he was working on some major things for Silva, but declined to tip his hand. Leading up to the fight Silva talked about challenging the top boxers in his weight class following a win over Henderson. Most inside the industry believe that a major boxer v. mixed martial-artist fight is bound to happen eventually, once the money is right. Could White have something up his sleeve? Only time will tell.

The rest of the live card was exciting at times, but sorely lacking in star power. The entire card was promoted solely on the strength of the main event, which combined with a relatively bland under card, created, for better or worse, a big time boxing feel. Whether that was the shadow casted by a highly anticipated main event or the first effects of dilution, both in product and perceived importance, remains to be seen.

The biggest news coming out of the show was the announcement of Brock Lesnar v. Mark Coleman for in August from Minneapolis. Hind sight being 20/20, that looks like the fight that should have been Lesnar's first. The questions raised before concerning the longevity of Lesnar's drawing power remain, but with Coleman as an opponent, as opposed to the rumored match up with Justin McCully, the odds of another big pay-per-view number are greatly enhanced.

UFC 79 Review: The Iceman Cometh Again

The UFC's unprecedented success over the past two years has been built chiefly on the backs of four men: Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture, and Matt Hughes (with apologies to Ken Shamrock). Today the company finds itself in the midst of a changing of the guard.

Couture has left the company and appears to have at most one fight left in his career. Ortiz's star has dulled considerably as he has struggled to stay healthy, much less regain his old form, since returning last spring, compiling an unimpressive 3-1-1 record (with two wins over an over matched Shamrock and a controversial split decision win over a very green Forrest Griffin). Liddell and Hughes each entered UFC 79 reeling, Hughes from one dominating loss and Liddell from two consecutive losses.

After his close victory over long time nemesis Wanderlei Silva in a thrilling bout, and Georges St. Pierre's second dismantling of Hughes, Liddell stands as the final remnant of the old guard, ready for one last run at the 205 pound crown in 2008. One fight, at most two, now stands between the Iceman and one last shot at the Light Heavyweight Title. That's good news not only for Liddell, but for the UFC who has bought itself one more year to complete the changing of the guard currently underway by solidifying new stars in the making like St. Pierre, Quinton Jackson, Roger Huerta, and Forrest Griffin over the next year.

Things didn't turn out quite the same for Hughes who suffered what may be a career ending loss for all intents and purposes. Whether or not the most dominant welterweight in the history of the sport decides to retire or not, his days as a top draw appear to be over. St. Pierre on the other hand showed great fire in victory and may be ready to turn the corner in 2008 as both a champion and a legitimate draw.

Provided GSP defeats Matt Serra as expected this Spring, unlike last, Hughes v. Serra looks like a natural "retirement" fight for the farmer and one last chance for a big buy rate for the company built on his broad shoulders. Once St. Pierre takes care of business against Serra, their is a string of worth contenders in the division, although none with the marque value of Hughes or maybe even Serra.

Wanderlei Silva looked great in a losing effort to Liddell and got over huge with the live crowd in his UFC re-debut. With two victories over Jackson, Silva is a natural challenger at 205, but the most interesting immediate possibilities might be at Middleweight. Reports out of Xtreme Couture suggested that he looked more like a natural middleweight and the evidence from the weigh-in at UFC 79 seem to suggest that he's not cutting much weight at 205. There Silva would have a quicker and easier road to the title and is an attractive matchup with either Anderson Silva or Dan Henderson. Hughes has also long entertained thoughts of moving up to 185 and could try to rejuvenate him career there as well.

The other major headline of the night was Harley-Davidson taking the center of the octagon mat. The sponsorship is the company's biggest breakthrough with mainstream sponsors to date and may be a harbinger of things to come. White recently told Michael Eisner on CNBC that the company expected to land its first blue chip sponsors in the coming months, of which Harley-Davidson certainly fits the bill. The company's arrival helped push Xyience off the mat and onto a corner pad.

The company's continued in denial of two of the biggest stories to take place outside of the octagon in 2007. Despite announcing two title fights directly attributable to the Randy Couture and Sean Sherk situations, the company still refused acknowledge the realities on the ground. The company could conceivably never acknowledge the Couture situation regardless of the outcome of the dispute, however it will be very interesting to see how they address the Sherk situation when he meets the winner of Penn-Stevenson next year. Of course this is standard operating procedure at this point so there is no point in beating the dead horse any further. (SEE: UFC 77 Review: Company's Credibility Takes a Hit)

The company had a rough night when it came to introducing and developing new stars. Sokoudjou and Soa Palelei were both positioned as stars, but each went down convincingly. Sokoudjou particularly came in like a lion and went out like a lamb, but is young enough and has a strong enough presence that he can easily recover from a loss to formidable competition to become a star. Palelei had the kind of performance that kills careers against journeyman Eddie Sanchez.

The most interesting booking question coming out of the show regards the undefeated Lyoto Machida. Machida turned in another dominating performance and showed more fire in finishing his opponent for the first time in the UFC. Is the performance enough to force the promotion to get behind Machida in a run at the 205 title? Or will they continue to avoid elevating him onto the top of the card, allowing him to wipe out the middle of the light heavyweight division in the process?

The show also featured one ugly, but admittedly entertaining, incident in the behavior of Melvin Guillard in a losing effort to long time rival Rich Clementi. Guillard began his night by flipping off Clementi and followed it up by tapping out before having to be restrained and escorted from the octagon. The incident, combined with his recent drug suspension for cocaine, should be enough for White to show Guillard the door. There is no place for that kind of unprofessionalism in the octagon, not if mainstream acceptance is the goal.

All In: A Lot is Riding on UFC 79

If UFC 79 were a hand of poker then the UFC would be betting it all. The company has built toward 12/29 all year and appeared to be determined, come hell or high water, to put forward its best lineup. First the company put its most talented weight class on hold for seven months in order to devote twelve weeks of The Ultimate Fighter to building Matt Serra v. Matt Hughes for the Welterweight Title. Then the company booked Chuck Liddell v. Wanderlei Silva, after first trying to make the fight in September, despite the fact that both men were coming off consecutive losses.

Then the best laid plan came apart with Serra forced to pull out due to an injury. Rather than cutting their losses and muddling forward with a safe replacement, the UFC chose to hot shot Hughes-St. Pierre III on short notice for the interim Welterweight Title no the less. The big show must go on, consequences be damned.

So the pressure is on with the company set to play its two biggest trump cards, outside of next year's Jackson-Griffin fight, on the same night. The results, both in the pay-per-view receipts and the octagon, will go a long way towards charting the company's course in 2008.

From a business and media perspective, with pay-per-view numbers down slightly for the year and the perception, real or perceived, that the industry has cooled off, the company could use a strong pay-per-view number to close the year. MMAPayout.com should have a complete story on the the company's pay-per-view numbers for the year next week, however, the company likely needs 600,000+ buys on Saturday to have a shot at beating HBO Boxing for the year.

The race is about far more than just bragging rights as much of this year's gushing media coverage is largely built on last year's record setting year on pay-per-view, including the beating boxing storyline. It has been said before, but momentum is self-perpetuating and the company has benefited tremendously from the mainstream media exposure that has resulted from its perceived momentum. If the media stops seeing the sport as the next big thing it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Perhaps in a demonstration of how strongly the company feels about the event, the format of this month's Countdown show was revamped with ramped up production values and more intricate story telling. The show had become very formulaic, although far from stale in my estimation, in the past few months. This month's version had a more cohesive documentary feel, something like a poor man's version of 24/7. In other words, the kind of hype show that would have drawn rave reviews before HBO raised the bar. I would describe the show as effective, but not spectacular.

I expect the company to do 500,000 buys in the worst case scenario, with something in the 600,000-700,000 range being the most likely result. Liddell's last four pay-per-views have averaged nearly 650,000 buys, while the last Hughes-GSP fight did 500,000 buys on its own. Of course, some of the luster is off all the main eventers coming off high profile losses and the general business climate has changed significantly in the last year. I believe that a slowing economy is an increasing threat to pay-per-view numbers and there are those who believe it played a significant role in the disappointing numbers from this month's Mayweather-Hatton fight.

To further complicate the picture, it was announced this week that Saturday's mega game between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants will be simulcast on CBS and NBC in addition to the previously scheduled NFL Network. While boxing may not hurt the UFC's numbers, football is a proven competitor. The NFL is the only sporting event that regularly beats the UFC in its key demographics and the only programming the company actively tries to avoid. The Ultimate Fighter's move to Wednesday night was in large part an effort to get away from football.

In addition to the immediate business and media ramifications, the outcome of the top two fights will setup next year's big fights, provided the company gets the "right" results. A Liddell win and resurgence would mean more to '08 business than anything else on the horizon. Liddell would be one, at most two, fights away from a big money bout next December against the winner of Jackson-Griffin for the Light Heavyweight Title. A Silva victory could eventually mean something to business, especially against Jackson whom he holds victories over, but not anywhere near what Liddell chasing the title at 205 would.

Georges St. Pierre may be the future of the sport, but for now Matt Hughes is one of only three proven draws the company has left (Liddell and Oritz being the others). A Hughes win would setup a big fight with Serra in the spring followed by a string of fresh title defenses (Parisyan and Fitch) or a long anticipated move up to middleweight for a showdown with Anderson Silva (provided he can make it through Dan Henderson in March).

The rest of the sold out card features Rameau Sokoudjou's much anticipated debut against undefeated Lyoto Machida in a top contenders match at 205, Rich Clementi Vs. Melvin Guillard, and Soa Palelei Vs. Eddie Sanchez.

TUF 7 Coaches Set; Jackson v. Griffin Headlines UFC's Early 2008 Lineup

The UFC officially announced Light Heavyweight Champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and, the original Ultimate Fighter, Forrest Griffin as coaches for the seventh edition of The Ultimate Fighter. Filming for season seven will begin in January. The series is scheduled to premier in April. Subsequently, Jackson will defend his title against Griffin in the summer of 2008.

Assuming an April premier and a twelve-week season, Jackson-Griffin will take place on Saturday June 21st at the earliest. At that time the company's premier weight class will have been on hold for at least eight months. The Light Heavyweight title will likely be defended only twice next year as the company continues to move towards more of a boxing work load for its top stars (2-3 fights per year).

The pay-per-view lineup through the first two quarters of next year is shaping up like this:

• 1/08 - England - BJ Penn v. Joe Stevenson for the Lightweight Title
• 2/08 - Las Vegas - Tim Sylvia v. Antonio Nogueira for the Heavyweight Title, Brock Lesnar v. Frank Mir
• 3/08 - Columbus - Anderson Silva v. Dan Henderson for the Middleweight Title
• 4/08 - Montreal - Matt Hughes/Georges Saint Pierre v. Matt Sera for the Welterweight Title
• 5/08 - Penn/Stevenson v. Sean Sherk for the Lightweight Title
• 6/08 - Quinton Jackson v. Forrest Griffin for the Light Heavyweight Title

Hughes v. St. Pierre Added to UFC 79

The UFC officially announced Georges St. Pierre as Matt Serra's replacement verses Matt Hughes on 12/29. The bout will be five rounds for the interim UFC Welterweight Title. The company didn't even consider St. Pierre a possibility as a replacement, but he asked for the spot himself.

All things considered, this is the best possible scenario for the UFC as it was in the company's best interest to reload the 12/29 card and keep the Welterweight division rolling. Hughes-St. Pierre for the Interim Welterweight Title is the perfect solution, perhaps it was the only solution, since it made no sense to risk either against anybody other than each other while waiting on Serra.

The only negative is that the company will be playing catch up in promoting the fight with the ads already out and runs the risk of burning what was guaranteed to be a hot match to debut in Montreal. The move could be viewed as an attempt to hot shot near term business, especially in light of indications that business has slowed down or at least leveled off from last year, and even from earlier this year. In the past the company has shown a willingness to wait to make big fights, but perhaps this was more of a result of that policy (i.e. already having waited on Serra-Hughes all this year they were forced to move on) rather than a change.

However, the incentive to do a big show on 12/29 should not be underestimated. The company has lost a lot of momentum the last few months, while boxing and even professional wrestling have gained ground. The perception of explosive growth has been instrumental in the company's ascent and while the mainstream media still perceives MMA as hot, that could change quickly if the company stagnates.

At first glance, it's hard to understand why St. Pierre would ask for the fight from a strictly business point of view. He was guaranteed a shot at the title next year, but instead asked for a fight on short notice against an opponent who will have the benefit on a full training camp. However, the moves makes a lot more sense when you consider that St. Pierre last fought in August and wouldn't be risked again until his title shot. Therefore, best case scenario, even before the Serra injury, he was looking at a six month layoff. With Serra out indefinitely he was looking at the possibility of an even more significant layoff.

Putting aside the ring rust issue, St. Pierre doesn't get paid unless he fights which is a strong incentive to get in the octagon sooner rather than later. St. Pierre also has every reason to be confident based on his dismantling of Hughes in their last fight.

UFC 78 Review: Forgettable (In Every Way)

UFC 78 was a very forgettable lackluster show. Rashad Evans defeated Michael Bisping by split decision in an uninspiring main event that left neither man validated. While lacking star power, the card was expected to be one of the most exciting of the year with several strong matchups on paper. In the end no fight lived up the hype as Frankie Edgar and Karo Parisyan ground out convincing but unexciting decisions over Spencer Fisher and Ryo Chonan respectively.

The biggest news coming out of the show was the destruction of rising star Houston Alexander by undefeated Thiago Silva. Alexander had an impressive build up to the fight with several rounds of positive media coverage and received the biggest reaction of the night from the New Jersey crowd. However, in the ring he was overwhelmed by Silva who took him to the ground and finished him from the mount in 3:25 of the first round.

The words Randy Couture were again banned from the production, despite his presence in Parisyan's corner. The company continues to mishandle the situation by refusing to acknowledge it on air. On a similar note, Quinton Jackson, whom you may remember as the charismatic UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, was also dealt with curiously by the announce team. His presence in Michael Bisping's corner, despite heavy screen time, was not acknowledged until the third round when an inset shot of him was displayed. Jackson is rumored to be unhappy with his current contract and has been noticeably absent from recent UFC broadcasts.

At the post show press conference Dana White reportedly said, "Rampage is out for a little while...we got some plans, can't talk about them yet, but we got plans for him....and no it won't be Rashad." There has been growing speculation of Jackson and Forrest Griffin as coaches of the next season of the Ultimate Fighter leading to a title fight in the summer. The show is slated to begin filming early next year so we should know something soon.

White also announced that Anderson Silva will defend his UFC Middleweight Title against Dan Henderson at UFC 82 March 1 in Columbus, Ohio.

Brock Lesnar's First Opponent

Dave Meltzer reports:

The opponent for Brock Lesnar should be finalized soon. They have an agreed upon name, and it's the person Lesnar specifically asked for as his first opponent. The opponent hasn't signed a new contract, but it's a name fighter who poses a significant danger to him based on the hints I've been given. The only thing I know for sure is that it's neither Heath Herring, Ken Shamrock, nor Brad Imes, and that it's a name fighter.

Andrei Arlovski seems to fit the bill. That's a fight that I think has a lot of potential, but would be far more valuable later in the year (SEE: 2008, a Space Odyssey: Potential Money Fights and Pending Challenges for the UFC). However, given the unpredictability of the sport, you can make the argument that you have to make the fights when you can, otherwise they may never happen.

It's hard to see the wisdom of throwing Lesnar to the lions immediately. It seems like the best money is in slowly building him towards a title shot late this year or early next. A loss out of the gate would bury someone who the company may have to count on in 2008 to do some business.

UPDATE: Today the UFC announced Lesnar v. Frank Mir for February. Perfect booking in my opinion.

2008, A Space Odyssey: Potential Money Fights & Pending Challenges for the UFC

It's never too early to start looking forward in business, even in an industry that changes as rapidly as MMA. Upsets, injuries, new additions, and potential labor disputes not withstanding, here is a very preliminary look at what the top of the UFC's pay-per-view events might look like in 2008 along with a discussion of looming challenges facing the company. This projection assumes the best case scenario for business and is not necessarily a representation of which fighter would be expected to win.

• 2/08 - Las Vegas - Tim Sylvia v. Antonio Nogueira for the Heavyweight Title, Sean Sherk v. BJ Penn for the Lightweight Title, Brock Lesnar's debut.
• 3/08 - Columbus - Quinton Jackson v. Chuck Liddell for the Light Heavyweight Title, Tito Ortiz v. Wanderlei Silva.
• 4/08 - Montreal - Matt Hughes v. Georges Saint Pierre for the Welterweight Title, Forrest Griffin v. Rashad Evans.
• 5/08 - California - Anderson Silva v. Dan Henderson for the Middleweight Title, BJ Penn v. Joe Stevenson for the Lightweight Title.
• 7/08 - Chicago - Antonio Nogueira v. Andrei Arlovski for the Heavyweight Title (provided Arlovski and the UFC can reach an agreement), Shogun Rua v. Tito Ortiz.
• 8/08 - Atlanta - Quinton Jackson v. Forrest Griffin for the Light Heavyweight Title.
• 9/08 - Las Vegas - Anderson Silva v. Matt Hughes for the Middleweight Title.
• 10/08 - California - BJ Penn v. Diego Sanchez for the Lightweight Title.
• 11/08 - Boston - Andrei Arlovski v. Brock Lesnar for the Heavyweight Title.
• 12/08 - Las Vegas - Quinton Jackson v. Tito Ortiz for the Light Heavyweight Title.

There has been some concern about a lack of big fights on the docket for the company heading into 2008, but this projection would setup six shows that have the potential to do big numbers on pay-per-view. Jackson-Liddell III, Jackson-Griffin (or Liddell-Griffin for that matter), Arlovski-Lesnar, and Jackson-Ortiz would all be expected to do strong numbers, assuming Jackson matures into the company's top star and Lesnar turns out to be the real deal. Hughes-GSP III and Silva-Hughes would also have a chance to do very good business.

The lineup would also set up well for the major market debuts that are planned for next year. Hughes-GSP is perfect for Montreal, Chicago features Arlovski as the hometown hero, Atlanta features Griffin who has ties to the city along with Jackson who is from nearby Memphis, while Arlovski-Lesnar is the kind of big match they need to enter the Boston market with. It should be noted that outside of the Montreal date, these date and venue pairings are all speculation.

Of course the major caveat is that, as this year has demonstrated, this business is all about expecting the unexpected. That is why we're still waiting to see GSP-Hughes III, and why we'll probably never see Couture-Cro Cop. With so many ways to win, or lose as the case may be, the odds of the company running the table are slim to none. That said, outside of Hughes over GSP and Ortiz over Rua, the rest of the projections look fairly solid on paper.

The company has a lot riding on Jackson. Stability on top is the key to doing business in individual sports (see Tiger Woods in golf), but particularly so in combat sports. The company will need Jackson to mature into the role that Chuck Liddell is in the process of vacating as the face of the company, at least for 2008. In the long term, whatever that turns out to be in an industry where its hard to stay on top, Griffin or Jackson are good candidates for the top spot.

Looking even further ahead, into 2009, this projection would set them up with either Jackson or Griffin as the face of the company at 205 pounds, a very marketable Heavyweight Champion (either Arlovski or Lesnar), and solid draws in Anderson Silva and BJ Penn. However, looking that far into the future in this business is close to worthless as anything more than an academic exercise. At this point in 2005 who would have predicted any of the current champions, especially Randy Couture and Matt Serra?

Regardless, 2008 is shaping up to be a very important year for the UFC. We are witnessing a changing of the guard in the company as the first generation stars that fueled the current boom (Couture, Liddell, Hughes, and you could argue Ortiz) are on their way out. The company has to build new stars in order to sustain, much less build on, its current success. As the projection above demonstrates, the company is fairly well positioned to make the transition if things go even remotely smoothly.

So despite what some have said in light of recent events (Couture's resignation, collapse of the HBO negotiations, string of drug test failures, upsets, etc.), the sky isn't falling, and the odds of a collapse of the UFC in the near future are extremely remote. Should such a collapse happen, it would likely represent an implosion of the entire industry rather than the failure of Zuffa.

The only thing on the horizon that could have such a dramatic effect would likely be an in ring death, but as the number of events continues to rise, and with it the number of less skilled competitors/promoters/referees/etc., the odds of the first death increase as well. If the sport continues to grow and thrive, the sad truth is that someone will die in competition, and the reaction that follows will determine the future of the industry. The good news, or bad news depending on your disposition, is that such an event is largely out of the industry's control. Even with the best precautions, it's almost an inevitable occurrence if the sport is here to stay.

Outside of a catastrophe, the advantages Zuffa enjoys cannot be overstated. The company is well funded, supremely positioned in the current market, and generally is brilliantly led by Dana White. The fact that so much has been made of the company's recent "failures" is testament to just how flawless its execution has been since its purchase of the UFC in 2001. However, that’s not to say that 2008 is looking like smooth sailing. The company seems to be facing several potentially serious challenges, namely increasing labor costs, growing competition, and product oversaturation (see: The Big Picture in Buzz Words & Bullet Points).

Only time will tell how serious these challenges prove to be. The Couture dispute could turn out to be an isolated event that quietly goes away, or it could be the catalyst to a more widespread talent revolt. If the industry is to have any longevity outside out an initial boom and bust, then one of company's competitors will eventually break through and begin to affect the company's business model. 2008 may or may not be the year it happens. As the product (both the UFC’s and its competitors) continues to increase its presence on television because of its success, there will eventually come a saturation point at which point the law of diminishing returns will set in, maybe next year, maybe three years from now when the UFC launches its weekly live fight series.

Who knows what exactly the future may hold, but 2008 is shaping up to be an important and interesting year not only for Zuffa, but for the entire industry.

UFC Notes

• The schedule for 2008 will include a return trip to Columbus in March as well as planned debuts in Atlanta, Chicago, and Boston. Montreal is tentatively scheduled for April with Georges Saint Pierre v. the winner of Matt Serra-Matt Hughes for the Welterweight Title, barring a Canadians playoff run.
• UFC 77 drew an arena record gate of $2.54 million.
• Despite a weak line-up in a major market the 11/17 show sold 9,200 tickets for $1.5 million in the first week. Those numbers indicate that the cheap tickets went quickly but most of the expense seats remain. 14,000 would represent a sellout.
• Manny Pacquiao v. Marco Antonio Barrera on 10/6 did 350,000 pay-per-view buys with Pacquiao's payout at $7 million which adds fuel to fire on the current pay scale dispute.

Source - Dave Meltzer's Wrestling Observer Newsletter

UPDATE - The UFC made Chuck Liddell v. Wanderlei Silva official for 12/29 last night. Their had been some discussion internally of moving the match to February following Couture's resignation.

UFC 77 Review: Anderson Silva Has Arrived; Company's Credibility Takes a Hit

A lot had changed in the world of MMA in the three-hundred and seventy-one days since Anderson Silva and Rich Franklin first collided in the octagon, but the result was largely the same as Silva dismantled Franklin for a second time in Saturday night's main event. The win capped a terrific week for the Middleweight Champion who was the beneficiary of a fabulous promotional push, backed up by a superstar performance. Silva looked unstoppable as he pushed his record to 20-4, with just one loss, coming by DQ, in the last three years.

The performance solidified Dana White's recent anointment of Silva as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world today. The only question left unanswered: who's next? White mentioned Thales Leites, Ricardo Almeida, and David Terrell as potential opponents at the post show press conference, all underwhelming options.

Silva has the potential to become a legitimate draw next year (in what looks like it could be a down year with few mega fights on the horizon), but the UFC will have to look outside the middleweight division for big fights for its emerging star. The most obvious candidates are Dan Henderson and Matt Lindland. However, Henderson has expressed a desire to stay at light heavyweight, while Lindland has been on the outs with the UFC since 2005. The best hope for challengers to Silva may come from the light heavyweight division, where in addition to Henderson several small light-heavyweights would also make attractive matchups including Shogun Rua, Michael Bisping, and Wanderlei Silva (who reportedly looks like a Middleweight at Extreme Couture).

Tim Sylvia thrust himself squarely back into the Heavyweight Title picture with a victory over Brandon Vera by unanimous decision. However, the win came in what has become typical Sylvia fashion, a boring points fight that saw the bigger Sylvia largely content to hold Vera against the fence. Andrei Arlovski was stripped of a title shot for fighting for points in a far more exciting performance against Fabricio Werdum, of course that was before Randy Couture announced his resignation and negotiations with Arlovski stalled.

At the post show press conference White alluded to Sylvia v. Antonio Nogueira for the Heavyweight Title if Couture doesn't return to the octagon. In his post fight interview, Sylvia inexplicably called out Cheick Kongo instead of Nogueira in a rare glitch in the UFC hype machine. That match would likely headline the February show.

The Couture situation was completely ignored on the pay-per-view broadcast, save for a passing slip by Mike Goldberg when referring to Nogueira. The decision to avoid the story was particularly curious in light of the significant coverage it has received from the mainstream media, particularly ESPN. This looks like another example of growing pains as the company continues to operate under a propaganda production model, ignoring bad news such as Lightweight Champion Sean Sherk's pending steroid suspension, despite growing media attention.

As a result the company's credibility, particularly that of its announcers, took a hit with the audience, a significant portion of which were left at best confused or, worst still, insulted by the company's disregard of their knowledge of the sport. The company now faces the possibility of retrospectively explaining the vacancy of two of its titles at the next pay-per-view show. The move represented a step backwards for the company's ascension into the world of legitimate sports and provided the perfect example of why HBO insisted on independent production. Glasnost would be a welcome development (See: Transparency is the Answer).

The other big news of the show was the announcement of Brock Lesnar's signing. After the show White indicated that Lesnar had signed a two-year contract and would likely debut in February. Lesnar has a great look, an undeniable presence, and better than average charisma. He looks like an immediate player in the heavyweight division and has the potential to do big business if things go well.

UFC 77 Preview

Another outstanding Countdown show on Tuesday night. These shows normally draw ratings in the range of 0.5-0.6, but are reportedly very effective at drawing pay-per-view buys. They were widely considered the gold standard of fight promotion until 24/7 came along last summer.
Anderson Silva can't speak the language to cut his own hot promo, fortunately he's got Dana White do it for him. White may have had a rocky couple of weeks, but he was even more brilliant than usual last night in his most comfortable role, that of fight promoter. You can criticize him for a lot of things, but anyone who has any doubt that he's the best pure promoter in America today need look no further than last night's show. White's hype (with an honorable mention to Joe Rogan), combined with a spectacular highlight reel, and an undeniable natural charisma made Silva look like a superstar.

Earlier this month I predicted 375,000 buys for this show. Franklin has never drawn a big pay-per-view number, but he's never had a hot opponent. Last year Silva-Franklin I did 300,000, but the per show average is up almost 100,000 buys through the first half of this year compared to last year. Based on the strong late push, rumors that UFC 76 outperformed expectations, and attention from Couture's resignation (all publicity is good publicity), I think this show may end up in the 450,000-500,000 buy range.

Several months ago I would have said a Franklin win would be the best thing for business, but not anymore. I think Silva has a chance to get over with the American audience. He has a certain presence and finishes people in spectacular fashion. Additionally, of the four fighters featured on the Countdown show, I thought Franklin came off as the least marketable in a lot of ways.

Furthermore, the UFC needs stability on top in order to build big fights. The titles have been musical chairs this year with two changing hands (Light Heavyweight and Welterweight) and two more that will likely change hands in the near future (Heavyweight and Lightweight). Until proven otherwise, I think people want to see dominant champions, with charismatic personalities, fight impressive challengers (although some argue unpredictability is a good thing). Frequent title changes cheapen the titles and hurt business by denying the chance to build superstars.

I thought the Sylvia-Vera fight got a strong push on the Countdown show. Sylvia was largely a flop as a draw, despite being a pretty good promo and a dominating heavyweight who finished people, which is probably a testament to just how important the right look is to being marketable. Vera is fresh and seems marketable, in a lot of ways he's Sylvia (great finisher, good promo) with more natural charisma and a better body. I like Vera from a business perspective, but in the octagon I think he's going to have a lot of trouble with Sylvia's size.

Robinson v. Gurgel, Schafer v. Bonnar, and Belcher v. Starnes round out the live card in matches that appear to be designed to put the Ultimate Fighter alums over. One wonders why McDonald v. Okami is not on the main card? Given the lack of depth in the Middleweight division, the winner of this fight will likely find himself back lurking around the title picture in 2008.

Meltzer Books the UFC Light Heavyweight Division

Dave Meltzer broke down the UFC's Light Heavyweight division today on Fox Sports. He identified ten fighters in the title picture: Houston Alexander, Rashad Evans, Forrest Griffin, Dan Henderson, Keith Jardine, Chuck Liddell, Lyoto Machida, Tito Ortiz, Maurcio Rua, and Wanderlei Silva. I couldn't agree more with his suggested booking:

• Quinton Jackson v. Forrest Griffin for the title in March
• Jardine v. Alexander
• Liddell v. Silva
• Winner of Ortiz-Evans II v. Rua
• Henderson v. Machida

As Meltzer said:

The beauty of these scenarios is that in every case, no matter who wins, you've got somewhere to go. Jackson-Griffin is the biggest money match available today, so you should make sure and do it right away. And when all of these matches are over, you'll wind up with four very legitimate contenders, no matter who wins. Barring injuries at the wrong time, the mess created over the past week that killed the biggest money match may have set them up for a series of strong business matches that could go well into 2009.

Full Article - UFC's Light Heavweights Carry the Sport

UFC 76: Business Review & Outlook

The UFC paid the price last night for booking Liddell-Jardine, a fight that was a no win situation for Liddell and the UFC, as Jardine ground out a split decision victory over the Iceman. Perhaps even worse Liddell looked downright human, old and past his prime, against the virtually unmarketable Dean of Mean. Thankfully, Forrest Griffin may have saved short term business with his upset of Shogun Rua. Griffin, behind a strong push on Countdown and All Access, dominated a consensus top 3 light heavyweight for three rounds before finishing him just before the bell. Griffin is on the verge of super stardom.

Conservatively, Keith Jardine's split decision victory over Chuck Liddell probably cost the company $6-8 million dollars by derailing Liddell v. Silva for December, maybe more depending on whether or not Hughes v. Serra plus whatever else they put together is good enough for 600,000-700,000 buys. On the bright side, Forrest Griffin's win should setup a title fight with Quinton Jackson next year that would be expected to top a million buys. Jon Fitch and Tyson Griffin also turned in impressive undercard wins.

Where Liddell, the company's biggest draw, goes from here is an open question. At the post fight press conference Chuck indicated that he would need to sit down and see whether he wants to get back in the octagon. If he continues, it would make some sense to go ahead with Liddell-Silva in December despite the loss, but at this point they probably can't risk losing Silva who they need as a challenger at 205 next year. Liddell's retirement would be a major blow to the company.

Logically, Jardine should move into Chuck's spot v. Silva in December. There aren't a lot of other options since I still think they are still too scared of Machida to put him in a high profile spot. If Silva-Liddell had happened, the winner of that match would probably have got the first shot at Rampage in '08, while Forrest would have gotten another win against a contender. From here, I think not only does Forrest deserve the next shot, he's really the only option unless they want to rush Silva, which given how the Pride guys are fairing thus far might not be the worst idea.

The winner of Ortiz-Evans II factors into this picture somewhere. You can make an argument that Evans should be ahead of Forrest with a win, and Tito could get the spot just because it would do big business (provided he and Rampage would fight). What do to with Rua next is another unanswered question.

No major changes in the landscape of the other weight classes coming out of the show. Diego is now damaged goods and will need to be rebuilt. Putting him back in with some of the other TUF alums seems like a likely direction. Jon Fitch has established himself as the # 2 contender at 170 pounds in my eyes. I think Fitch v. Karo Parisyan makes a lot of sense moving forward.

UFC 78: The Panic Button - UPDATED

It looks like BJ Penn is off UFC 78 on 11/19. Dave Meltzer reports this morning:

UFC is looking at moving B.J. Penn's next fight to 12/29, on the same show as Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra and Wanderlei Silva's debut (well, first in years as he did fight in UFC a few times before he became famous in Japan), in Las Vegas. If Chuck Liddell doesn't lose and doesn't get any kind of an injury tonight, the idea is to put Liddell vs. Silva on that show. We'll know a lot more in the next 24 hours.

Link to complete original post: UFC 78: The Panic Button

UFC 78: The Panic Button

November 17 is getting closer, only about eight weeks away in fact, and UFC 78 is still without an announced main event. Originally Sean Sherk was to defend his Lightweight Title against B.J. Penn, unfortunately Sherk's post-fight steroid test came up positive, leaving the UFC scrambling. Pay-per-view ads are generally submitted no later than 60 days from the show, so time is running out.

It's a really complicated situation. The original idea was to put Penn against Joe Stevenson to crown a new Lightweight champion, but there were two complicating factors. First, Sherk is appealing his suspension with a hearing set for 10/31. The UFC won't strip him of the title until the NSAC decides his case. Therefore, the pay-per-view ads, at least the early ones, wouldn't be able to bill a title fight. Then Stevenson suffered a broken jaw putting him out of consideration for the spot. They are still considering doing Penn v. someone for the title.

Had Gabriel Gonzaga defeated Randy Couture for the Heavyweight Title they were going to bring him back on a quick turn around to defend against Antonio Nogueira. That of course went out the window when Couture stopped Gonzaga. Couture ended up suffering a broken arm in the fight, but wouldn't have been available anyway because of his role in the Scorpion King movie.

They now apparently are working on the Tito Ortiz-Rashad Evans rematch, which while not finalized looks likely now that Tito has resigned. A Nogueira match to establish him as the number one contender was rumored, but now looks like it will wait till December with Frank Mir as the rumored opponent. Arlovski would have been perfect for a fight with Nogueira on the show but he only has one fight left on his deal which means he's in the UFC's version of purgatory until resigning. A Hamill-Bisping rematch would good for the show if they can turn around that quickly.

Whatever the main event ends up being, it looks like the show will struggle on pay-per-view. The most logical move would to bump Serra-Hughes up to November, but that can't be done due to TUF.

UPDATE - Dave Meltzer reports:

UFC is looking at moving B.J. Penn's next fight to 12/29, on the same show as Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra and Wanderlei Silva's debut (well, first in years as he did fight in UFC a few times before he became famous in Japan), in Las Vegas. If Chuck Liddell doesn't lose and doesn't get any kind of an injury tonight, the idea is to put Liddell vs. Silva on that show. We'll know a lot more in the next 24 hours.

Arm Chair Booking: UFC 76

Two important Light Heavyweight matches headline UFC 76 as Chuck Liddell faces Keith Jardine and Shogun Rua makes his octagon debut against Forrest Griffin. It will be very interesting to see how this pay-per-view draws. Reactions to the the Liddell-Jardine match have ranged from why to who cares, while there is some buzz for Rua-Griffin.

On paper, Liddell v. Griffin, Rua v. Jardine looks like it would have been a stronger lineup. Liddell-Griffin was the original plan heading into Spring '07 before Keith Jardine derailed the Forrest Griffin band wagon. That upset left the UFC scrambling for a challenger at 205 leading to the expedited purchase of the WFA and what many thought was a premature rematch of Liddell-Jackson (Hindsight being 20/20, that worked out well for the UFC). While each have lost some of their luster since then, Liddell-Griffin still has great marque value (certainly better than Liddell-Jardine) and would almost certainly have delivered a stronger buyrate. Furthermore, from a business perspective the match-up is a win-win since both Liddell and Griffin are draws, the same can't be said for Jardine. A Jardine upset of Liddell would be disastrous for near term business.

The only way the actual match-ups make sense is if Liddell is being protected heading into a December match-up with Wanderlei Silva and a potential rematch with Rampage. While I think Forrest is a better fighter than Jardine, I'm not convinced Jardine is a safer fight for the former champ, since if Jardine has demonstrated anything its knockout power, just ask Forrest Griffin. The odds of Jardine catching Chuck seem alot higher than Forrest grinding out a decision.

Title Picture Following UFC 75

HEAVYWEIGHT

It had looked like the UFC was building toward Cro Cop v. Antonio Nogueira for am eventual shot at the Heavyweight title. There had been some talk of a quick turn around for Cro Cop to get this fight on the November show that is still without a main event. Cro Cop’s loss to Cheick Kongo erases that match as well as any potential rehabilitation of his drawing power. With such a high downside guarantee, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cro Cop cut.

Nogueira v. Andre Arlovski in November for a shot at the heavyweight title would make a lot of sense. Arlovski was supposed to be next in line for a title shot following his win over Fabricio Werdum at UFC 70. He was subsequently stripped of that shot by Dana White as punishment for not trying to finish the fight. However, Arlovski only has one fight left on his UFC deal which means there is zero chance he’ll get a prime spot before signing a new deal. Former champion Tim Sylvia and the undefeated Brandon Vera (back from exile after changing management and signing a new deal) would also appear to be logical candidates for the spot, however, they are strongly rumored to be facing each other on the October show.

Given all this, Kongo v. Nogueira looks very likely for later this year, however, that fight lacks the luster to be any kind of draw. Randy Couture won’t be available to defend the title until Super Bowl weekend (due to his arm injury and role in a movie), so it looks like Randy v. Sylvia/Vera in February, with Nogueira being groomed for a shot in the late spring/early summer. Ofcourse this is all subject to change should the UFC sign Fedor Emelianenko.

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT (205 lbs)

Rampage over Henderson was good for business. The UFC could really use a little stability on top after year that has already saw five title changes with one more looming (as a result of Sean Sherk’s positive). Jackson is a marketable, albeit little known, fighter who has the rub of having beat arguably the sports biggest star, Chuck Liddell, twice, the last by knockout in a fight that received the biggest main stream publicity of any MMA fight in history.

From here it looks like they’re building towards Jackson v. the winner of the much anticipated Liddell-Wanderlei Silva fight in December. Of course that is subject to Liddell dismissing Keith Jardine at UFC 76. Shogun Rua looks to be the next in line for a title push, getting the rub of one of the company’s biggest stars in his debut fight against Forrest Griffin. Exciting Houston Alexander v. the winner of Rua-Griffin looks like a logical next step building towards a Rua title shot next spring.

MIDDLEWEIGHT (185 lbs)

Henderson’s loss at 205 puts the reigning Pride Middleweight Champion squarely into title contention at 185. Dana White has said that he’d want Henderson to fight once in the division before stepping up to unify the belts. That looks like the logical direction to go after the Anderson Silva-Rich Franklin rematch in October. After that it’s pretty slim in pickings in the company’s weakest weight class.

WELTERWEIGHT (170 lbs)

This is widely considered the company’s most crowded division, but thanks to a string of contender fights the title picture is pretty clear. Matt Serra will defend against Matt Hughes in December (although some have suggested that there is an outside chance of this fight getting bumped up to November to fill the void). From there, best case scenario, Hughes regains the title and defends against George St. Pierre in Canada next spring. Worst case scenario, Sera retains and worse still they can’t get a date in Montreal.

From there the title picture opens back up. A Jon Fitch win over Diego Sanchez at UFC 76 would probably move him to the front of the line for the next shot after GSP.

LIGHTWEIGHT (155 lbs)

This division is in limbo pending the outcome of Sean Sherk’s appeal of his steroid suspension. The only thing we know is that BJ Penn is the number one contender to the title and will most likely be fighting someone for the belt in November. Assuming Sherk’s appeal is denied and he is stripped of the title, from there things get complicated. Joe Stevenson suffered a broken jaw in his last fight, likely dropping him from consideration for the spot opposite Penn. The Kenny Florian-Din Thomas winner at next week’s UFN is a possibility on a tight turn around. From there it’s hard to get a handle on this division. It’s full of talent, but there is very little separation and no real stars outside of Penn and Sherk.